Q2 2025 Newsletter
"The U.S. economy remains strong and resilient despite earlier concerns that tariffs announced in April would drive inflation higher and trigger a slowdown. GDP has rebounded, unemployment is steady, and retail sales are solid, while inflation has not spiked as expected. However, the S&P 500’s gains are concentrated in large tech stocks, with smaller and equal-weighted indexes showing more modest valuations. Anticipated Fed rate cuts starting in September may be delayed depending on upcoming jobs and inflation data."
Q1 2025 Newsletter
"Volatility is normal in markets. While headlines may sound alarming, inflation remains moderate, and new tariffs are unlikely to drive it much higher. Recent recession fears stem from a negative GDP print, but that decline was mainly due to timing of imports rather than weaker demand—true economic softness has yet to appear."
Dips, Pullbacks, and Recessions
"Clients have reached out with concerns about market weakness and portfolio resilience amid volatility. The market has entered correction territory—a 10% pullback from recent all-time highs—marking one of the fastest corrections in history. While uncertainty has fueled volatility and some panic, such pullbacks are normal. Despite current conditions, we remain constructive and focused on the underlying data, which continues to support a bullish outlook."
FY 2024 Newletter
"Inflation may be overstated relative to market and Fed expectations. Last December’s market pullback followed the Fed’s shift to a smaller rate-cut outlook and comments about policy uncertainty. Looking ahead, lower-than-expected inflation could be positive for markets. We see potential outperformance from equal-weight and small/mid-cap stocks versus large-cap and tech-heavy names as market concentration narrows. Despite media narratives, valuations aren’t excessively high when viewed in context—structural changes, a resilient consumer, low unemployment, and rising real wages all support continued economic strength."
Unlocking Opportunity: Thematic Investing in India
"India remains one of our core long-term investment themes, integrated into client portfolios from the start. With its young, tech-driven population, expanding middle class, and pro-growth government policies, India is positioned to become a leading global economy. Opportunities span digital services, infrastructure, and renewable energy, with our current exposure focused on consumer growth and technology adoption. While we remain mindful of cyclical risks, ongoing research helps us manage them effectively. We believe diversified portfolios benefit from international exposure—particularly in regions like Latin America, Southeast Asia, and India—and continue to view India as a compelling 10+ year growth opportunity."
